It's time to put on your thinking caps and turn on your baloney detectors, Lincolnites, because the arena promises are really going to start rolling in now that "a Wisconsin sports consulting company"
has said that "a new Lincoln arena and associated developments could generate $260 million in annual economic activity and create 1,200 jobs." I'll tell you up front: if you believe those numbers you're a fool. Here's why.
First up, "sports consulting companies" exist to sell their services and to sell their products. They don't really have an incentive to lie, but they do have every incentive to be as rosy as possible in their predictions. Remember all of the insane predictions for the Archway out in Kearney? Same concept (although the Archway's predictions went far beyond rosy and into absurd territory). Always --
always -- remember that about these firms. One good way to judge the value of any individual consulting firm's predictions is to compare their past predictions with actual results. Hopefully one or more local media agencies can have somebody research that for us.
Second, some of the numbers don't smell quite right. Consider the claim that the arena and associated projects would create 1,200 jobs. Yet the arena itself is only expected to offer 60 full-time equivalent (FTE) positions. That leaves 1,140 jobs unaccounted for. There's no way an arena that itself only supports 60 FTE could support 1,140 FTE outside its walls. It's therefore likely those 1,200 jobs are part-time. But what's a part-time job? .8 FTE? .5? .1? The fact is, the study authors cite an ambiguous and huge figure like "1,200 jobs" because it makes great press fodder. Can it actually happen? Color me skeptical.
Last, these studies always seem to forget to mention that the money and jobs they cite won't just appear out of thin air. Yes, some of the money that an arena and associated projects would generate is new in the sense that people who would not have otherwise come to Lincoln will come here. But much of the money is merely transferred from somewhere else. Every $8 I spend on a hot dog at the arena is $8 I'm
not spending at Oso Burrito; every $50 ticket I buy is $50 I'm
not spending on other entertainment options. Again, some of that is a net win for Lincoln: if I stay in Lincoln rather than going to Omaha, Lincoln wins. But if I go to the arena rather than doing some other activity in Lincoln,
the net gain to Lincoln is zero. I repeat: the big dollars cited by the study are not entirely new dollars. They're probably not even mostly new dollars. A substantial proportion is existing dollars redirected from somewhere else.
A study that does not make that clear is being untruthful. Arena supporters -- including City officials, 2015 Vision, and so on -- must be honest with Lincolnites about the true economic impact the arena and associated projects will have. The arena will not exist in a vacuum.
Lest you think I'm an anti-arena crank, let me remind you that I am generally supportive of the West Haymarket redevelopment plans. But I won't tolerate anything less than full disclosure about the true costs and benefits of the plan, at least as far as public dollars are concerned. You shouldn't either, supporter or not. So put on those thinking caps, Lincolnites, and grab those baloney detectors. Let's keep 'em honest.
EDIT: Good going JT, you correctly identified where this is!