It's time to put on your thinking caps and turn on your baloney detectors, Lincolnites, because the arena promises are really going to start rolling in now that "a Wisconsin sports consulting company" has said that "a new Lincoln arena and associated developments could generate $260 million in annual economic activity and create 1,200 jobs." I'll tell you up front: if you believe those numbers you're a fool. Here's why.
First up, "sports consulting companies" exist to sell their services and to sell their products. They don't really have an incentive to lie, but they do have every incentive to be as rosy as possible in their predictions. Remember all of the insane predictions for the Archway out in Kearney? Same concept (although the Archway's predictions went far beyond rosy and into absurd territory). Always -- always -- remember that about these firms. One good way to judge the value of any individual consulting firm's predictions is to compare their past predictions with actual results. Hopefully one or more local media agencies can have somebody research that for us.
Second, some of the numbers don't smell quite right. Consider the claim that the arena and associated projects would create 1,200 jobs. Yet the arena itself is only expected to offer 60 full-time equivalent (FTE) positions. That leaves 1,140 jobs unaccounted for. There's no way an arena that itself only supports 60 FTE could support 1,140 FTE outside its walls. It's therefore likely those 1,200 jobs are part-time. But what's a part-time job? .8 FTE? .5? .1? The fact is, the study authors cite an ambiguous and huge figure like "1,200 jobs" because it makes great press fodder. Can it actually happen? Color me skeptical.
Last, these studies always seem to forget to mention that the money and jobs they cite won't just appear out of thin air. Yes, some of the money that an arena and associated projects would generate is new in the sense that people who would not have otherwise come to Lincoln will come here. But much of the money is merely transferred from somewhere else. Every $8 I spend on a hot dog at the arena is $8 I'm not spending at Oso Burrito; every $50 ticket I buy is $50 I'm not spending on other entertainment options. Again, some of that is a net win for Lincoln: if I stay in Lincoln rather than going to Omaha, Lincoln wins. But if I go to the arena rather than doing some other activity in Lincoln, the net gain to Lincoln is zero. I repeat: the big dollars cited by the study are not entirely new dollars. They're probably not even mostly new dollars. A substantial proportion is existing dollars redirected from somewhere else.
A study that does not make that clear is being untruthful. Arena supporters -- including City officials, 2015 Vision, and so on -- must be honest with Lincolnites about the true economic impact the arena and associated projects will have. The arena will not exist in a vacuum.
Lest you think I'm an anti-arena crank, let me remind you that I am generally supportive of the West Haymarket redevelopment plans. But I won't tolerate anything less than full disclosure about the true costs and benefits of the plan, at least as far as public dollars are concerned. You shouldn't either, supporter or not. So put on those thinking caps, Lincolnites, and grab those baloney detectors. Let's keep 'em honest.
Comments
See what your friends and neighbors have to say about this.
Well written, Mr. Wilson.
I support the arena.
Your analysis is well thought out, but I may tend to disagree with a bit of it. I am not sure about the zero-sum game proposed here - that most of the money is just transferred from somewhere else and the net result to the city is zero.
I certainly think a good portion of the money is transferred from something else - but often special events are unique dollars - celabratory dollars, or whatever. I also think that the transfer isn’t neutral for anyone that is coming to Lincoln to spend them if they don’t live here.
In other words, if someone from Seward spends $8 on a hot dog, that is most likely an $8 loss to Seward, and a gain to Lincoln.
Many, many arena events will bring in people from outside of Lincoln. Even Husker games. But I think that an arena has the chance to bring in a lot of things we don’t consider - it’s not just concerts (which we won’t really steal from Omaha) and Husker games. There is a lot of convention business out there to be had, and right now, Lincoln sucks for holding a convention.
A new arena with convention space, and more downtown hotel properties, will surely bring in some out of town dollars.
I am skeptical of the numbers being thrown around, but on balance, I still think a community our size needs adequate (and modern) facilities. Today, we don’t have those. Omaha, Council Bluffs, and even Kearney have upgraded facilities much more recently than Lincoln has. So to with Kansas City, Sioux City, and others.
Sadly, it’s an arms race not unlike sports facilities upgrades around the Big 12 and college athletics.
Not saying that the analysis is correct or not, but the jobs claim is based on the arena AND associated projects - including 100,000 sq feet of office space, 100,000 sq feet retail, 100 residential units, 200 room hotel and ice center. 600 jobs for this stuff, and those 600 jobs help create in 400 more.
Seems a little pie in the sky, but an Arena would be good, imo.
And $8 for a hot dog???!!
I really can’t go along with, “Every $8 I spend on a hot dog at the arena is $8 I
<i>I am skeptical of the numbers being thrown around, but on balance, I still think a community our size needs adequate (and modern) facilities. Today, we don
I’m guessing it’s not a dollar for dollar displacement for most families on a week by week basis-but if the family hold to some kind of budget (maybe too big an assumption) it’ll probably even out over the year.
Share your thoughts with the community.
Commenting is no longer permitted on this post.