Three Reasons to Vote No

By: Mr. Wilson on March 17, 2010
If you like reading press releases, the Journal Star published a lightly-edited press release from the folks at No2Arena this morning that outlines the group's three primary reasons for encouraging you to vote "No" on the arena. They are:
  1. We're only voting on $25 million out of a $344 million project;
  2. Environmental clean-up will cost more than the $7.5 million budgeted;
  3. There won't be many new jobs created.
I have raised questions about all three of these issues before. I'm not worried about the money issue. The City has been pretty transparent about its numbers. It's not like arena backers are going around saying things like "At $25 million, the arena is a bargain! Vote yes!". Everybody knows or should know by now that this is a big, 300+ million project. As for item number two, I can only say: show me the data. Until they can do that, the No2Arena folks can stick this item in their little no-holes. The City has a relatively large amount of data to back up its claim that the clean-up will cost no more than $7.5 million. Perhaps it's not enough data to satisfy everyone. That's fine. The No2Arena folks on the other hand bring nothing but denials to the table. That's lazy and lame. They are welcome to make this claim when they have something to back it up. Last is the jobs issue. I commented at length on the topic back in January. In short they are correct. The long-term job situation isn't going to be dramatically improved by the presence of a new arena. Improved, yes, but we're talking on the order of tens rather than hundreds. The arena isn't the only piece in the puzzle, however. It is a catalyst, and if it does its job it should spur growth in the overall economic engine of the city. To the extent it does that there will be new jobs created. You'll have to ask an economist how many, but I wouldn't be terribly surprised if that number creeps into the hundreds over time. That's just an instinct, not a promise. In other arena news, folks who don't like Deena Winter's negative attitude toward the arena aren't going to like today's column. She has given anti-arena folks a new arrow for their quiver. What she says is that the City's property tax levy millage limit is 50 cents per $100, and that the City currently taxes at half that rate. What anti-arena folks will take away is "City property taxes will double unless you vote No on the arena!". That's going to be a powerful message for the antis that the pros will have a difficult time overcoming.

Comments

See what your friends and neighbors have to say about this.

Lincolnite
March 17, 2010 at 1:32PM

I usually visit lincolnite.com after checking out the LJS site in the same way one takes a shower after getting all slimy and dirty.  Thanks.

(And one comment from the LJS site I can’t get out of my head…“UNL is ruining Lincoln.”)

Matthew Platte
March 17, 2010 at 1:35PM

“...show me the data”  I thought one of the anti- issues is that the railroad isn’t letting the inspectors into the area so that data can be produced—not until after the deal is done, that is.

Mr. Wilson
March 17, 2010 at 1:49PM

Partially correct. Union Pacific isn’t opening up its land just yet, as is its right. So yes, there is an amount of uncertainty involved here.

From No2Arena’s perspective there are several ways they could “show me the data”. Currently they’re doing little more than saying “You’re wrong!” without much detail. Can they bring soil scientists and engineers on board to find holes in the testing that has been done and the cost estimates that have been made? Can they point to other projects in the area that faced similar clean-up issues? I suspect they could gather some compelling—if not convincing—evidence if they really tried. At worst they could raise legitimate questions based on reason as opposed to their current approach that relies mostly on denialism.

Fletch
March 17, 2010 at 2:05PM

These people drive me nuts. Is this a perfect plan? No. Has anyone ever seen a truly perfect plan?

Is this the “best time” to build an arena? I’d argue that it never seems to be the right time for a lot of things. When is it the perfect time to have a kid? Quit a job? Have a flat tire? If we waited for a “perfect” moment, few of us would ever do much of anything.

As for the timing - I think it’s a great time. The economy is not excellent, but it will undoubtedly improve. Meanwhile, materials are priced lower. Labor is priced lower. And interest rates are still among the best that they’ve been in decades. Those are all positive reasons that NOW is a good time. Plus, you have the Huskers ready, willing, and able to sign up as long-term tenants.

If we skip the arena now, and wait for a better time, then UNL may just fix up Devaney for their own uses. Mr. Wilson made fantastic points about how Devaney is not a community arena. However, if the Huskers stay, the new city arena if built in the future loses a lot of big dates.

As to the economy, we are withstanding things much better than other parts of the country. Our unemployment numbers here are really good compared to almost any place else. Foreclosures are lower than nationally. I think we can afford it.

Do I hate potholes? Yes. Is this an either/or? Hell no.

We have the chance as a community to do something to better the entire area - we should take this chance and make it happen.

Moses
March 17, 2010 at 3:37PM

Amen!!

Gene
March 17, 2010 at 4:45PM

<i>What she says is that the City

Dave K
March 17, 2010 at 5:39PM

Everybody knows or should know by now that this is a big, 300+ million project.

I agree they should, but don’t think they do. You have to admit there are a lot of uneducated voters.  How else do you explain Mayor Doubtfire? The only way for ‘everyone to know’ the real cost of the project is to put the real cost on the ballot, something that city leaders didn’t feel it was necessary to do.  And why would that be ...

Dave K
March 17, 2010 at 5:49PM

These people drive me nuts.


Wow Fletch, are you so affected by the ‘need’ for the arena that you’re driven nuts by people who’ve formed an inspiring, though incomplete, argument against the arena? 

You are correct, there is no ‘best time’ to have a $300-400M city pet project.  There’s also no good time, either, especially if the project promises to be a black hole of taxpayer money for decades.

I just heard UNL might send a manned space mission to Mars.  We don’t want to be left out of that, so I think we should put that on the ballot too.  In all seriousness, that UNL may renovate the Devaney center is the weakest possible argument in favor of an arena.  If they do that, then isn’t half of this so-called ‘need’ gone?

pocket lining
March 17, 2010 at 7:53PM

The vote is going to come down to how this project is perceived by Lincolnites.  Most of the people in favor of it have a vested (or potential) interest in the project while the majority do not.  Most of the people I have talked to against the arena said that their perception is that a handful of people are going to make bank on this regardless of its financial viability while all the taxpayers will be burdened with the risk to line the pockets of the developers!  I have even heard one of the developers wife

Fletch
March 17, 2010 at 7:59PM

Only for those that vote no. Also, the potholes will never be fixed on streets where no-voters live.

Fletch
March 17, 2010 at 8:07PM

When I see an inspiring argument against it, I will let you know. The three “pillars” as listed above are dubious. The only one that has much merit in my opinion is the cost of clean-up. I’ve just gone thru a similar project on a micro scale, and it’s a guessing game until they actually dig.

Personally, I wouldn’t be touting jobs either as a reason to build it, or a reason not to build it. While it will create some new jobs, it is impossible to predict a number, and most likely it’s a shell game of those jobs being taken away from somewhere else any way. I’m still in favor of the arena.

With or without the Huskers as tenants, I’d be in favor of the arena. I’m saying that if you have the choice of someone willing to commit to 40-50 dates annually versus not having that, I’d go with the commitment.

Lincolnites bitched and moaned when Gallup pulled up most of its stakes and moved to Omaha. They cited better roads, labor pool, or whatever. This city needs to move forward, and the arena and surrounding developments are big steps forward. We can handle the payments.

Fletch
March 17, 2010 at 8:08PM

For the record, I stand to gain nothing, except a nicer place to take my kids to see the circus and an occasional concert or game.

Gene
March 17, 2010 at 8:19PM

<i>In all seriousness, that UNL may renovate the Devaney center is the weakest possible argument in favor of an arena.  If they do that, then isn

Stacy
March 18, 2010 at 12:14AM

I doubt I’ll be going to any circuses at the Arena.

A circus at Pershing costs $14 - $16 per person.

A circus at Qwest in Omaha costs $60 - $158 per person.

Will events that have typically cots us less at Pershing even be able to afford the arena?  If they can’t afford it, and they start charging astronomical fees for the event, then what?

For those that have the Arena, do you currently attend events at the Lied Center?

Concert sales have been decreasing as the economy gets worse.  I think a lot of people seem to think that this is the Fields of Dreams.  Just because you build it does not mean that they will come, or that they should, or that if they do, that anyone will even be there to see them step on the field.

Dave K
March 18, 2010 at 12:25AM

Is that worth making everyone (!) pay more to eat at a restaurant and stay at a hotel?

Lincolnite
March 18, 2010 at 12:47AM

Stacy, the Shrine Circus in Omaha was in February at the Qwest and the ticket prices started at $10.  The Barnum and Bailey circus in June (different circus) has tickets that start at $20 and go to $60.

I’m sure the Shrine Circus would remain in Lincoln at the Haymarket…probably same price.  And, we’d possibly get a larger, maybe even better (?) circus if another act wanted to be at the Haymarket arena?

I guess having another option would be worth everyone paying an extra 2 percent, at least in my mind.

Neal
March 18, 2010 at 1:08AM

I think the way you frame item #2 is a bit of a misrepresentation, the correction of which kind of nullifies your response.

I don’t think any arena opponents are claiming to have secret wisdom that the cleanup will end up more than $7.5 million (the kind of claim that would fall victim to a “Show me or shut up” response). My understanding is that the argument is that voters have little more than the city’s word that the cost will be only $7.5 million when the third party studies will fall somewhere between too late or too minimal to be useful.

Arguing “Show me the data” is a silly response to this. These folks are saying “Back up your claim that it will only cost $7.5 million,” and to them, you want to say “Prove to me it won’t” ? That seems like a slightly fancier way of saying “I know you are but what am I?”

Neal
March 18, 2010 at 1:16AM

You’ve also misrepresented item #1 now that I re-read it. The vote being on a small portion of the project is only part of issue #1; the bigger concern is that all of the project is potentially backed by property tax revenue and not just the portion being voted on.

I don’t really understand the high-horse attitude of looking down on Deena Winter’s supposedly slanted presentation of information when you have to make a caricature of these people’s arguments in order to refute them.

Personally, my favorite anti-arena argument to make fun of is the one where we take all of the revenue that would be generated by an arena and then use it on other things instead of building an arena.

Stacy
March 18, 2010 at 3:51AM

Actually no, I believe the Shrine circus was at the Civic Auditorium, not the Qwest Arena.  I believe Civic is smaller and more outdated than Qwest, correct?  Kinda like Pershing…

You presume that the Shrine Circus will stay.  But has anyone who has any real knowledge of this issue addressed it?  Considering when you look at the other venues Shrine is at, I’m going to say that no, they won’t go to the Arena, they can’t afford it, nor can many other events that come to Lincoln.

And lets look at that “bigger and better”.  Sounds cool, pretty, shiney.

I’m not sure what numbers I looked at before, but I do apologize I was looking at something wrong for the price of Barnum, however, and I stress however, lets get back to that cool, pretty, shiney…

Can you afford $240, for a family of 4, to visit the circus, so you can see that bigger and better circus?  In order to get *comparable seats* to what you can currently get at Pershing, that’s about what you are going to pay.  Right now it’s a whopping $64 to see the Shrine circus.  If you can afford $240, then excellent!  You go for your bigger and better.

But me, and a large population of the state, can’t (and won’t).  So personally, if you really want a bigger and better circus, go to Omaha.

Ed
March 18, 2010 at 3:57AM

Since I’m in the age group (18-30) this arena is supposed to benefit, I’ll weigh in with my two cents. Proponents of this arena tout that it will keep more young people in Lincoln. Ok, entertainment is nice but people are going to stay here if there are jobs in their field. For many fields, there are few, if any, jobs in Lincoln (and Nebraska in general). I’m not a native Nebraskan (I come via 4 other states) but a lot of kids that grew up here just want to get the hell out. That’s partly because young people everywhere feel that way and partly because those aforementioned folks view this area as having people who are stuck in the past and intolerant of most social progress. I don’t necessarily view Nebraskans as being intolerant but there are things the older, ruling class could become more open minded about.

I feel there is potential to create a lot of jobs here though, particularly as the rest of the country becomes more unaffordable to live and do business. UNL and the other colleges here are the biggest asset Lincoln has since it gives the city a large educated workforce and universities are places of innovation that can turn into good private sector and government jobs. Look at Austin, TX as a good example.

Ok, the jobs aside, let’s look at the other argument: We have other things that need fixing first. Alright, I agree with them and if I was asked to choose between an arena and a $344 million package that repaired our streets, improved and added sidewalks, greatly improved our bus system, and gave us comprehensive recycling, I would easily choose the latter. But, we aren’t being asked about to choose between infrastructure and an arena, and given the way things have gone in this city (and the country in general)  the past 20 years, I’m not confident the latter would happen even if we turned down the arena. In other words, it seems like our options are potholes and a fun place vs. potholes and no fun place. If arena opponents are serious about improving the city’s infrastructure, then let me know… I’ll be glad to help!

Next we have taxes. Ok, I’ll admit up front that I’m not averse to paying more taxes IF I think there is a high probability that it will help the majority of citizens. The question here is will raising taxes for the arena be utilitarian or is it going to only benefit a few? Well, given that in many other places, arenas have been paid for by all taxpayers but have events that are essentially unaffordable to the majority of the public. Will that happen here? It’s worth doing a little more research into.. On the other hand, taxpayer supported arenas have helped spur development (or redevelopment) in cities, which means more jobs and more tax revenue for the city.

There is the argument of the events the arena will bring in. Will Lincoln compete with Omaha for concerts? On paper no, but a decent student body within walking distance of the arena could give incentive to tours. The arena could possibly support an arena football team or a professional basketball team (development league). They may also be eligible for 1st and 2nd round NCAA games. So there is definitely potential for the arena to bring in a lot of revenue for the city IF it’s managed correctly.


Finally there is the location of the arena. On one hand, it’s a great location. It’s within walking distance of UNL and other things downtown. Therefore, there is a great possibility that a downtown arena could significantly improve downtown (and given the amount of vacant retail down there this would be a bonus). On the other hand, the location is in an area where there are environmental concerns and a road network system that will need to be greatly improved.

So how do I plan to vote on this? At this point, I lean toward voting for the arena as I think there is potential for this to be a catalyst for other downtown development as well as sending a message to outsiders that Lincoln is a city that is willing to spend a little money and take risks for the future. That would look awful good to me if I was a businessman looking to relocate my business or start up a business.

Fletch
March 18, 2010 at 4:05AM

Isn’t part of the projected $7.5 million cost for clean-up going toward an insurance policy that will cover the costs if it exceeds $7.5 million? Or am I dreaming that (seriously, I don’t recall, but I thought I had read that).

Fletch
March 18, 2010 at 4:07AM

I think this was an excellent post.

meatball
March 18, 2010 at 7:18PM

“I don

Neal
March 18, 2010 at 10:55PM

You’re not entirely dreaming—one of the consultants that has been hired suggested the city could buy insurance if people felt the $7.5m was insufficient, but the cost of a policy was not included in the $7.5m.

Neal
March 18, 2010 at 11:18PM

...and you stopped quoting right before the press release explains why they think the $7.5m is insufficient, based on the limitations of the studies and other cleanup.

Cities hire consultants to tell them what they want to hear. Obviously, a city needs to get some kind of assessment, but consultants’ success isn’t judged on whether or not their projections are correct—it’s whether or not those projections get projects passed.

I can give you a nice concrete example—Barrett Sports Group is a consulting firm based in the southwest U.S. that specializes in sports facilities. They came up with San Diego’s projections for Petco Park, the Padres’ new stadium downtown. Their projections were off by millions of dollars a year even before the recession.

Petco has been a disaster for San Diego, and the area around it is a ghost town. The development never materialized. Yet there’s the park, right on the front page of Barrett’s website - a shining example of their abilities.

Of course, Barrett isn’t suffering for the fact that San Diego taxpayers are on the hook for $11 million a year for a stadium that Barrett projected would pay for itself. Omaha hired Barrett to make their projections for the new CWS stadium.

Obviously, what happened in San Diego doesn’t have to happen in Lincoln. But defending consultants’ figures based on the idea that they’re experts is only influential if you ignore the history of how these projections play out.

Dave K
March 18, 2010 at 11:39PM

Speaking of scare tactics, the arguments made by the No2Arena group are nothing like “OMG, Lincoln is going to become a ghost town if we don’t build the arena”, or “All young people will leave if we don’t build the arena”. 

I was wondering when I’d finally hear the ‘scare tactics’ complaint in this debate.  Apparently the answer is ‘2 seconds after an opposition voice is heard’.

Stacy
March 19, 2010 at 1:08AM

My husband and I were talking about this last night. 

I think instead of an arena, I think we need to can the idea and build in it’s place, a new home for the Lincoln Stars. 

See, when we first brought the Stars into Lincoln we did it right.  I remember the trepidation about the new hockey team.  They were new, would it pick up fans, would it be popular?

Instead of building a brand new building for the team, that had even less what-ifs than this arena, we took over an old building at the fair grounds that used to house the horse shows.  We renovated it and set it up and you know what.. it worked, and it worked big.  They have sold out events, and on average, they play to a 90% filled building.  People camp out to buy season tickets. 

I’d much rather, in these economical times, focus on something that we know is already working, and play up to it’s attributes, than shoot for the moon in hopes that this arena works.

meatball
March 19, 2010 at 3:03AM

Um, no. I stopped quoting at the end of point No. 2 on the front page of their Web site. No qualification is provided. Nothing but a scare tactic.

San Diego? Why not cite the consulting firm that worked with Denver on Coors Field? Opposed to success stories?

Gene
March 19, 2010 at 1:13PM

If only we could find an established sports team in search of a practice facility and a place to play. It would be even better if that sports team were part of a local college or university. It sounds crazy, but it just might work.

Moses
March 19, 2010 at 2:00PM

What kind of town does Lincoln want to be?  Specific examples of circuses and ice hockey teams are not the things we should worry about.  We should worry about Lincoln becoming a destination or a wayside. 

With good facilities for public events whether they are concerts, circuses, conventions, tournaments, etc., Lincoln has a chance to bid on events that bring people and business to town.  Without them, Lincoln becomes somewhere people go through on their way to somewhere else.

Just ask any restaurant or shop owner how much it hurts that Lincoln lost the volleyball tournament, the wrestling tournament, the State Fair. 

It was very pleasant this past weekend not to have to worry about all the annoying crowds from the basketball tournament the previous two weekends. But if you own a business in Lincoln it wasn’t nearly so much fun.

With the proper arena and development we could be hosting regional women’s or men’s NCAA tournaments and all sorts of out of towners this weekend too.

I have chosen to live in Lincoln because I think it can be the type of town that will be a destination.  New businesses in the Antelope Creek development.  New building in the innovation campus. 

I am going to vote yes and spend my tax money to help Lincoln move forward.  Otherwise, we may be the next Topeka….

Stacy
March 19, 2010 at 2:43PM

Exactly.  The only thing holding me back on the arena is the “field of dreams” aspect of it.  If we had a team that was established to go in it the second it was built, the arena would have a yes vote from me, but I simply can’t say yes to something that will be built on the hope that we can underbid other cities to get events here.  As Moses pointed out without realizing it; we have a poor track record as it is in not being able to underbid (the reason we lost the volleyball tournaments).

Dave K
March 19, 2010 at 5:47PM

I wonder if meatball is going to bemoan your use of scare tactics ...

hbrogan57
March 20, 2010 at 1:18AM

I still hold by my statement.  It doesn’t matter WHAT the vote is.  If it’s “NO” those that want this built will find yet another way to stick it to taxpayers. 

You all know as well as I do that there are numerous places MUCH better to build this at.  Why in the Haymarket??  Simple.  It’s close to the Big Red Machine.

The bike paths along the Antelope Valley project is a PRIME example.  Those CLOSE to the University were completed FIRST.  Instead of the connectors.

Also, it seems to me that the “Big X” was completed in record time.

Not to mention the fairgrounds.

So….if the mighty Big Red Machine wants it…rest assured…it WILL be done.

Ed
March 21, 2010 at 8:09PM

Yes, but then again if it wasn’t for the Big Red Machine, Lincoln would probably have half as many assets as it does. No UNL would mean no Huskers, far fewer options in performing arts, far less diversity in food options, fewer job options and jobs we do have would pay less than they currently do, and you’d have a situation where almost anyone under the age of 30 with an education leaves. Like it or not, UNL is the biggest asset that Lincoln has and without it, I guarantee you Lincoln would just be another graying, dying Midwestern city.

hbrogan57
March 22, 2010 at 12:00AM

I am certainly NOT arguing the point the the University isn’t good for Lincoln.  However, I am saying that everything doesn’t HAVE to revolve around it.

And there are PLENTY of young people that get the heck out of town either shortly after graduating either high school or college.  Because they KNOW Lincoln is a Good ‘Ol Boy town and they probably won’t get very far.

meatball
March 22, 2010 at 3:53AM

Seriously Dave? You don’t consider the strategy (I use the term lightly) of the Anti-Arena Crowd as little more than attempting to prey on fears? Whew!

hbrogan57
March 22, 2010 at 8:38AM

Don’t the taxpayers in Lincoln get tired of footing the bill for the University?  I mean, taxes paid for the Devaney center.  Taxes are more than likely going to help pay for that “innovation” campus.  Now taxpayers are being “asked” ((cough cough)) to support MILLIONS for a new arena.

Here’s what really gets my goat.  There are NUMEROUS other places in and around the city that would be a WHOLE lot cheaper AND provide easier access for people wanting to come to events.  Why does it ALWAYS seem to be that everything MUST revolve around downtown???  Just look at the Centrum debacle years ago.

There is better than 150 YEARS of contamination in those rail yards.  I really think that they are underestimating the cost of what cleanup will be.  And, after the cleanup is done for the arena area, what about OTHER businesses that might want to relocate to that area?  Will THEY be responsible for cleaning it up or will that fall on the taxpayers as well??

These are just a FEW questions that I have.

But I will say that it really doesn’t matter WHAT the “people” vote.  Again I will say that, it seems anyway, if the University wants it then it WILL be built.  Regardless of what the voters say.

Dave K
March 22, 2010 at 5:38PM

What are you talking about?  The only strategy of fear that I see is the one that created the pro-arena movement in the first place: the argument that unless we build an arena, “... we may be the next Topeka”.  An opposition group arises, and they’re playing on fears? LOL! Since the arena is your idea, it’s your job to prove the opposition wrong, not whine about ‘scare tactics’.

Ed
March 22, 2010 at 6:31PM

Hbrogran,

I agree that everything doesn’t have to revolve the university and truth be told, a lot of faculty and staff don’t like everything the university does.  At its best UNL is a well respected institution that gives the city an educated population base and at it’s worst it’s a bureaucratic, good ol’ boy system. Almost every other major state university in the U.S. fits that description so UNL isn’t unique in that regard. Yeah, young people do leave here but the same can be said for a lot of other places in the Midwest. Some leave for jobs and some just want a different experience.

It’s hard for Lincoln to compete for young professionals because to a lot of outsiders and to many people living here, this is middle of nowhere hick country where people are set in their ways. We don’t have mountains nearby, we aren’t anywhere near an ocean, and even hills, forests, and lakes are scarce. The climate here is not for the faint of heart either. Those aforementioned items are obstacles and will certainly detract some. However, Lincoln also has a lot of assets.. The cost of living is very reasonable, crime is very low for a city of this size, and neighbors will help you in times of need. As glamorous as some major cities and other scenic locations are, they are becoming unaffordable to people right out of school. So the challenge for Lincoln is finding a way to preserve its assets while gradually expanding and diversifying its economy and entertainment options. There are about 2-3 areas I think Lincoln could improve upon and if they did that, it would hands-down be one of the best communities in the U.S. 😊

hbrogan57
March 22, 2010 at 8:31PM

Agreed.  Boulder, Colorado and Columbia, Missouri are just a couple of the college towns I can think of.

When an entire arena is being built for the basic purpose of hosting basketball and other sporting events it becomes clear that the city council and others are bending to the whims of the University.

I remember when the Devaney center was built.  Sure it IS outdated now.  But it WAS built to be an entertainment center.  Cigarette taxes were raised to build it.  Then the University decided to hold a LOT of their events in it and no one else seemed to be able to use it.  As I recall, the downfall of it as an entertainment venue was when Def Leppard wanted to mount ceiling lights for their show.  Well, that’s all water uner the bridge now.

It just seems to me that Lincoln spends a LOT of time trying to reinvigorate the downtown area without giving a LOT of though as to how people will get there, and, when they do, where they will park.

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