Well, Chuck Hagel finally went and did it: he called the Iraq War Vietnam. (Upon hearing the news, Don Walton had a massive orgasm.) I remain convinced that Hagel is pulling these media-friendly tricks as part of an elaborate plan to gamble his way into the White House in 2008. Will the gambles work? Time will tell. I just hope Senator Hagel remembers Rule Number One of gambling: the house always wins. And he is going up against a pretty darn powerful house.
Depending on how events play out, I see Hagel going down in history either as one of the most beloved or most reviled of all Nebraska senators. He has left himself very little room to leave a legacy anywhere in the middle.
Update: Hit and Run is following this story and, as always, there are plenty of good comments to chew on.
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I predict he’ll run for prez and go down as a hero, at least here in NE. Actually, isn’t it almost certain he’ll run given he’s spent a lot of time in New Hampshire already and has similar plans in Iowa? Yeah he is definitely damaged goods with the neocon crowd but they don’t really have a good candidate on the horizon unless its Allen from VA (who I don’t consider a good candidate).
I look at it like this:
1) Jeb Bush is out. Forget it. With GB and GB jr in recent memory, JB as prez just won’t fly.
2) Giuliani - IF he decides to run. Despite his positive name recognition, his liberal social views will alienate the base.
3) Rice - she is out. She has declared she won’t seek the prez but MIGHT make a formidable VP candidate for some neocon white guy (or for that matter a VP candidate for the Hagel/McCain wing of the repubs - but why would the latter choose her?).
4) Frist - This dude has as much charisma as Joe Lieberman AND Al Gore put together. Forget it.
5) Allen - This guy might win, especially if there is another major terror attack (which is probable) and somehow Iraq magically turns into a Switzerland (which is highly improbable).
6) McCain - Too old and been round the track already.
7) Hilary - Any republican will beat her to the white house.
So basically, I can see Chuck winning IF 1) he chooses a neocon/insider type for VP (someone from the south would be good); 2) the war continues on the same track and Iraq remains a mess or worse (which I think it will); 3) his opponent is Hilary; 4) there is no major terror domestic attack; 5) he emphasizes his 100% conservative stance on domestic issues. Most importantly, he or she who wins Iowa and NH will have a good chance, and I can see him winning both.
Chuck’s big obstacle is the danger of being McCained in South Carolina. Plus, as we’ve seen several times in recent history (McCain, Kerry, Cleland), having Purple Hearts doesn’t necessarily help a candidate. Chuck’ll have to overcome a McCaining and a Swift Boating in order to make it out of the primaries unscathed.
Nice. Wonder what the definition of “to McCain” (v.) or “to Swift Boat” (v.) would be in the Urban Dictionary?
But I get your drift. I think he probably faces more a risk of being swift-boated than being McCained though.
He certainly gets lots of favorable media response with these antics. It’s hard for me to see how he will win the nomination with this line, though. The networks and the NY Times don’t vote in the Republican primaries.
The NY Times would only back Hagel in Ahmed Chalabi was his running mate. Or maybe Judy Miller.
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