Expect to hear a lot from
Citizens FOR Jobs and the Lincoln Haymarket Arena in the coming months. And expect me to pick on them over those months, at least if they keep spreading dubious "facts" about the arena.
Consider the number of jobs they claim the arena will create. I've picked on this before, but it bears repeating. The group claims: "In the future, the Lincoln Haymarket Arena will add more than 1,000 permanent jobs at the arena and in the surrounding retail, commercial and residential area." There are several problems with the number, but let's focus on three.
First, note that "jobs" is a fuzzy term. What is a job? Is it an FTE? Any position that earns any money? Without a good definition the term has little "punch" and supplies very little value to the discussion.
Second, we don't know what sort of assumptions have been made to generate the "more than 1,000" value. Starting assumptions are extremely important. Assumptions about what is possible very often differ substantially from what eventually transpires. The assumptions that drive these figures almost
always overestimate the good and underestimate or bury the bad. As long as the assumptions are transparent we can deal with that and make decisions accordingly. If the assumptions aren't made known the figure is worthless.
Last, note this wording carefully: "the Lincoln Haymarket Arena will add more than 1,000 permanent jobs at the arena and in the surrounding retail, commercial and residential area". It does
not say "the Lincoln Haymarket Arena will add more than 1,000 permanent jobs to the community". In other words some of these jobs -- we have no idea how many -- will simply be transferred from one area of the community to the other. That's a hugely important distinction. Some of these jobs will no doubt be truly "created" in the sense that they would not have occurred had the arena not been built. But others -- some? many? most? -- will not. If Cheesecake Factory comes to town
because of the arena, then we can say those jobs were "created" by the arena. If, on the other hand, Cheesecake Factory would have come here regardless, then the arena does not get to take credit for creating those jobs. However, due to the wording noted above the arena supporters still get to count those jobs toward their total.
Further note that the same is true for the arena's overall economic value to the city. Some economic value will be "created" by the presence of an arena and surrounding developments. But not every dollar that ends up in the arena and its environs will in fact have been "created" by the arena. Some of the money will simply be transferred from elsewhere. That restaurant that could have gone in at Fallbrook will instead go in the Haymarket; the apartments that could have gone into Antelope Valley will instead go into the Haymarket; and so on. The exact same thing happens with every major development around town: some new economic value is created, and some of the economic activity could just as easily have located elsewhere.
I've stated this before but I'll say it again: don't misinterpret these sorts of comments as indicators that I'm rabidly anti-arena. I'm not. I simply demand honesty and transparency so voters can make the best decision possible. Once the formal anti-arena groups really get going -- I'm sure we'll hear more from them very soon -- I will probably pick on them just the same. That's what I do. Now you folks get to do what you do so well: argue amongst yourselves 😊
OK, I get it. It's there in preparation for some future development. But wouldn't it make sense to block it off until there's something to turn left to? Maybe the City likes trapping unsuspecting drivers in turn lanes to nowhere. Sadistic punks.
EDIT: Good going Steve!