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I think Bruning absolutely could take Hagel. It would depend a lot were Heineman throws his support. Hagel is ripe for the taking right now.

If you think Heineman could affect Hagel at all, you’re seriously underestimating Hagel. That man would eat Heinie alive. Dave is politically savvy when he’s dealing with deadbeats, but not even state legislators listen when he barks.

I understand that a lot of the vocal, activist party faithful are upset with Hagel for bashing on Bush’s Iraq policy, but does that really represent the majority of mainstream moderate and libertarian Republicans? I don’t get that sense. Hagel is a solid conservative on everything (contrast that with pro choice/gay rights and anti gun Giuliani), including foreign policy.

I think its more a case that Bush 2’s foreign policy has become so freaking extreme that Hagel’s foreign policy realism now appears to some to be on the left when its really not. I hope Chuck retains his Senate seat. It would be good for the Republican party in my opinion.

I talk with a lot of people who are in no way vocal, and are not activist party faithful, and I think you underestimate the popularity of the notion of Chuck getting the boot. And I think if you head west of Lincoln, the problem gets magnified. Those who assume Chuck will walk away with probably were ready for Tom and Nancy to pick out new curtains for the Gov’s mansion when he threw his hat in the ring, and look how that turned out. If “Heine” got behind Bruning, that would be a powerful mechanism that could certainly tip the balance to Bruning. Should be interesting how it plays out. A lot would depend where the $$ come from. I think Bruning would take in way more $$ from Nebraskans, but Chuckles would pull big $$ from across the country. I’ve seen Bruning operate since his ASUN days at UNL. I wouldn’t be one to count him out.

I don’t know Fletch. I see your point - Bruning would put up a fight, but I can’t see him taking Hagel.

One thing that has become clear to me at least, is that Nebraska doesn’t run as red as some may think. Sure, we’re red - but look at how many Republicans support Nelson. If we were hard right in the sense of “I will vote for any Republican” than Ricketts would have done better against Nelson (may be a poor example though because Ricketts was such a bad candidate/campaigner).

But a better case in point is the 3rd district battle last year. That kid from Yale came close to taking the district.

My point is that Nebraska is red, but not so red that the “I support Bush so vote for me” line will amount to an automatic win. Especially when there is so much dissatisfaction with Bush. I just think that Hagel has more support than people believe.

I think it’s pretty red with strong candidates. A solid candidate in the third district could win without much effort at all. Think of the close call that Don Stenberg of all people gave to Ben Nelson. Ricketts was his own worst enemy. The other elephant sitting in the room is Mike Johanns. He can come back when he’s done with his cabinet seat and probably could dethrone Ben. If he were to support a Bruning type, it would have some pull. Stenberg wasn’t too popular, and he almost did it. Bruning has a popularity and something about him. If you look at his track record over 20 years now, back to ASUN, he’s achieved everything he set out to do. I don’t know him personally and am not trying to make this an endorsement at all - just saying that counting him out at this stage seems foolhearty. Ben is popular because he still seems to vote, when the time comes, more closely or give the impression that he listens to his constituents. Chuck seems to be following McCain’s plan and is now just all about face time and Chuck. I don’t feel he speaks for me. I am a registered R, and I’d rather keep Ben and dump Chuck than the other way around. Blind party loyalty (thankfully) only goes so far - but when there’s a solid candidate, I think we still run pretty red, just not as much in Lincoln. LOL

I don’t doubt Bruning could win. I just doubt the influence of Dave Heineman would have anything to do with it.

Anyone who has followed Nebraska politics for the past several years would never even suggest that Dave Heineman would endorse Jon Bruning. Never in a million years. Heineman owes his victory in May last year in large part due to Hagel’s early and vocal support.

Yes, but at the same time, anyone who has followed Nebraska politics for the past several years would also know that Heineman is a political opportunist. All he has to say is “Chuck has been great to the party, but he’s left us behind” or whatever the talking point of the day is. He’d likely wait it out, but if he suspects the people would side with Bruning, he’d throw his endorsement in once it was safe.

I’d love to see a poll on this…

I’m going to have to add “Heinie” to my regular repertoire from now on in reference to the Gov. Thanks guys.

I always liked, “His Heinie-ness.”

But let’s look at it here: Hagel endorsed Heineman. Bruning endorsed Osborne. Heineman’s got a tremendous amount of influence in the Republican Party, and he’s not about to use it on someone who actively campaigned against him - let alone use it to screw over the one guy responsible for where he is right now.

See today’s Journal Star for confirmation: Heineman’s backing Hagel.

You are correct. He is. That is a tough nut for Bruning to crack. Maybe the Chuckster will do the right thing and just run for President and not Senate, then Bruning can run without tearing up the party, and the end result is Chuckles will be out of office.

If he runs for Prez, it’s for one reason only - ego. It would be fun to see how poorly he fairs. Why on Earth would he think he stands a chance?