‘08 Rundown
Yes, I am as sick of politics as you are. However, as noted by the No Quarter blog today, the Congressional Quarterly came out with a nice, convenient snapshot of potential 08 candidates for the White House that is a pretty interesting read. As for the Chuckster, the article notes:
Plenty of GOP conservatives would rather set themselves on fire than see Hagel win the Republican nomination.
LOL, true. In fact I know some. In anycase, right now my very premature guess is that its going to come down to Edwards vs McCain.
The Comments
Dave K November 13, 2006 at 10:56pm
I love presidential campaigns, and it’s never too early or late to talk about them. Who is nominated on the Republican side will be determined by how the base interprets the loss of this past election. If they see it as being evidence that they’ve lost their conservative ways, and the confidence of fiscally conservative Americans, I can see Gingrich being a popular pick. He will have to work hard to gain faith from moderates, since he was considered very divisive during the days of the Contract With America. If he gains momentum, be it in the general election or the primaries, you can be sure to see ads talking about how he shut down the government and starved school kids. Being a former Speaker, he has a massive record full of things that can be used against him, as all legislators do.
If the election is interpreted as evidence that the electorate is moving to the left, then a candidate such as McCain is going to be the strongest. He’s a media ‘maverick’, the media loves him. I can’t imagine a circumstance under which a media-loved Republican such as McCain couldn’t win, especially one with McCain’s prominence. I guess they could always turn on him once he’s nominated, but that could even become an issue in the campaign.
I normally wouldn’t talk about Hagel, because he’s going to be a non-factor, but there’s local interest in him. The base hates Hagel. Only something like 37% of Nebraska voters last Tuesday think he would make a good president, and that’s Nebraska, his home state. His middle-of-the-road, media-attracting activities have built disgust among Republican primary voters. If he makes it to the Nebraska primary (which he won’t), he will not win it.
I’m going to have more fun watching what happens with the Democrats over the next couple years than anything else. They effectively used moderate candidates to get their freak left leaders into positions of high power. The only decent commercial Pete Ricketts made was the one where he said Nelson’s no Ted Kennedy, but Nelson will vote Kennedy to leadership positions. That’s the only argument Ricketts had against Nelson, and one Republicans insufficiently used in the most recent campaign. America will discover some time in early 2007 just what Pelosi, Murtha, Kennedy, Feingold, and the other far-leftists are really about. It’s not going to be pretty.
If the Democratic base has made a far-enough shift to the left, we could see a Hillary Clinton or Al Gore nomination. Kerry is done, or I’d say he had a good chance to again convince his base that being a veteran means he should be president. If I had to pick one, I’d say Hillary is the frontrunner right now.
Both of my ‘most intriguing’ races involve Hillary Clinton. I would love to see her against Gingrich. You would have a true ideological battle a la 1995, involving the same players. I’d also like to see her against Guiliani. I think the Republicans are going to lose Ohio, so we’ll need to find a big blue state to take. If New York were in play, expect a seriously active and intense campaign up there and elsewhere. Guiliani, like Hagel and McCain, has problems with the base, but his problems are a little easier to deal with.
I could write on this topic forever, but I’ll stop there. Prediction: Guiliani vs. Clinton. I can’t wait to get it on late next year!